If your morning cup of coffee has been costing more lately, you’re not imagining it. Coffee prices have surged dramatically over the past 18 months, and the reasons go far beyond your local cafe. A mix of climate change, shifting global demand, market speculation, and new import tariffs have combined to create what many in the industry are calling “a perfect storm.”
In this Evans Brothers Coffee guide, we’ll unpack what’s really behind rising coffee prices and why they’re here to stay.
1. Extreme weather is reducing global coffee supply
Volatile weather patterns (including severe droughts and damaging frosts) have hit major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, which supply a large share of the world’s beans. These events have drastically reduced harvest yields, shrinking the global supply of coffee.
2. Rising demand meets tight supply
While supply is dropping, global demand continues to climb, particularly from rapidly growing markets like China. This imbalance has intensified pressure on the coffee market. With fewer beans to go around and more buyers competing for them, prices have climbed steadily upward.
3. Market speculation is adding fuel to the fire
It’s not just farmers and roasters affected by these shifts. Commodity traders in the coffee futures market have also played a role in pushing prices higher. Speculative activity can cause sharp short-term spikes, adding even more volatility to an already strained market.
4. Roasters are paying more than ever for green coffee
For coffee roasters, including small independent businesses, the cost of green (unroasted) coffee beans has skyrocketed, up to 100% higher from many origins over the past 18 months. While some price increases have been passed on to consumers, most roasters have been unable to fully offset these rising costs without sacrificing profit margins.
5. Tariffs are making coffee even more expensive
As if extreme weather and market forces weren’t enough, new import tariffs have made the situation worse.
- All coffee-producing countries, except Mexico, are now subject to a minimum 10% import tariff.
- Imports from Brazil, the largest coffee exporter, supplying roughly one-third of U.S. coffee, are now subject to a 50% tariff.
Importers pass these added costs on to roasters, who must either absorb the hit or raise their prices further.
Why Brazil matters so much
Brazil has long been the low-cost backbone of many U.S. coffee blends. With tariffs making Brazilian coffee untenable for many roasters, demand has shifted to other origins. But global supply isn’t large enough to fill the gap. This increased competition is driving up costs from other producing countries as well, multiplying the impact across the entire market.
Why we can’t just grow coffee in the U.S.
A common question is: “Why not just source coffee from the U.S.?”
The reality is that coffee can only grow within the equatorial belt, and Hawaii is the only U.S. state producing coffee commercially. It accounts for less than 1% of U.S. consumption, and production is inherently expensive due to higher labor and land costs. Domestic production simply can’t scale to meet demand.
What’s next for coffee prices
Looking ahead, experts anticipate that coffee prices will continue to rise.
- Many roasters will have no choice but to increase prices further.
- Those that don’t may struggle to stay in business.
- Wholesale pricing could soon include a direct tariff pass-through, meaning higher costs at every level of the supply chain.
Why coffee prices are rising: The bottom line
The rise in coffee prices isn’t just about inflation; it’s the result of a complex and interconnected global crisis. Extreme weather, surging demand, speculative trading, and steep tariffs have created conditions that are driving up costs for everyone, from farmers to cafes to your morning cup.
While the coffee industry is adapting, one thing is clear: the era of cheap coffee may be coming to an end.